Research 2000 for WCAX-TV (10/24-26, likely voters, 9/11-14 in parens):
Gaye Symington (D): 24 (33)
Jim Douglas (R-inc): 47 (48)
Anthony Pollina (I): 23 (7)
(n = 400)
I was just going to pop this into Quick Hits, seeing as how off-the-radar the Vermont gubernatorial race is, but this is such a complicated situation that it needs some extended explanation. Jim Douglas, a very moderate Republican, has been governor of Vermont for six years, since Howard Dean left office. Vermont is one of only two states (with New Hampshire) that elects a governor every two years… and Vermont is alone in its other weird quirk: if no one gets over 50%, the race gets thrown into the state legislature. In fact, that’s how Douglas got into office in 2002: he won 45-42, with 13 going to third parties.
We may be looking at the same scenario this year; there have been few polls of this race, but they all place Douglas slightly below 50. Like 2002, there’s a strong third-party presence this year, this time in the form of Anthony Pollina, who has run for statewide office several times on the Progressive Party line (although this time he’s running as an independent).
Pollina has secured a number of endorsements (AFL-CIO, Vermont Education Association) that normally go to Democrats, and Vermont House Speaker Gaye Symington has stumbled in public appearances, which explains Pollina’s surge in the polls; if his trajectory continues, he’ll wind up finishing second.
So what happens if this winds up in the hands of the legislature? Last time in 2002, the legislature installed Douglas, who got the plurality of voters. They’re under no obligation to do so, though, and the Vermont legislature is now more thoroughly Democratically-controlled than 2002 (93-49-8 in the House, and 23-7 in the Senate)… so it’s possible that even if Douglas wins the plurality (as he certainly looks likely to do), he might not get chosen based on a partisan vote. But if Symington finishes third, could the legislative Dems bring themselves to install her? Could Pollina play kingmaker by throwing his support… or could he even wind up as the dark-horse pick? This one will be interesting to watch.
UPDATE: Although the possibility of someone other than Douglas winning at the ballot box is nil, the possibility of a non-Douglas outcome at the legislative level has encouraged us to move this race to “Likely Republican.”
This is another Rove-style stupid law just like the Georgia run-off rule. Even if the race does not turn out to our advantage, the Dems should not overrule the people’s will.
Plus, Douglas is a good egg, a real Rockefeller Republican. I might even have voted for him if I live in Vermont.
for the Legislature to elect the plurality winner of the election if no candidate achieves a majority. It would be politically very difficult/unlikely for the Democratic/Progressive majority to give it to another candidate. (It is worth noting that the vote is secret ballot, so there is no way of knowing how individual legislators voted.)
This would especially hold true if Douglas fell only a few points short of 50%, and was as far ahead of the other 2 candidates as this poll suggests.
The last time a non-plurality winning candidate was chosen by the legislature was a 1976 race for Lt Gov (the only time in the 1900’s this happened) — a very different situation than this year. The Democratic candidate received 48.4% of the popular vote, while the Republican had 47.6% – a very narrow margin. Even with this, the Republican majority legislature probably would still have elected the Democratic candidate, but in between the November election and the January legislative meeting, rumours began to circulate that Democratic candidate (John Alden) was facing potential legal problems (turned out to be true). Even with that, the Republican Garry Buckley was still only elected by a 90-87 vote margin in the Republican-majority legislature.
Both Douglas (R) in 2002 and Madeleine Kunin (D) in 1986 were selected by the legislature after finishing first with less than 50%, and with very small margins over their opponents — that would not have been possible had not members of the opposite party voted to elect the first place finisher.
The only thing that could change this would be if it was a truly tight 3 way race — with Douglas under 38-39% or so, only a few points ahead of the runner up. Then the Legislature might feel justified in selecting the runner-up candidate. But there is no sign that this is going to happen.
Symington has proven to be a disappointingly weak candidate for the Dems, and I expect Pollina will end up overtaking her in the popular vote. Unfortunately we’re in for another 2 years of Jim Douglas (who is actually much more conservative than his carefully crafted public image as a moderate suggests).
I know a lot of non-Vermont political observers have noted the 50% requirement and thought it represents a potential pick-up if Douglas is below 50% — I hate to disappoint any of you, but that isn’t the way Vermont’s political culture works. Douglas seems headed toward safe re-election.
That they won’t win the Governorship unless the Progressives are on-side. Next time they need to pick somebody acceptable, perhaps even a Progressive Party member.
And the Progressives need to keep doing what they’re doing. It’s the only way for them to build their power.
I would think that Sen. Patrick Leahy would be an attractive choice for U.S. Attorney General.
I assume the VT Gov would appoint his successor.
So, this race has some bearing on that decision. But maybe Douglas can be persuaded to appoint someone acceptable to Obama and Leahy.
If he was more evil I’d be inclined to play hardball. But he isn’t and is perfectly acceptable and there would be no good reason to deny him and it would only backfire on the Democrats if they did. Not sure how Vermont deals with vacant Senate seats but if it is the appointment of the Governor that probably should come into play in any deal the legislature makes installing him.
just to see what happens if douglas gets less than 50%. if pollina comes in second, i’d bet anything that he tries to get the legislature to elect him.